Industrial output in the April-June quarter too contracted by 0.1 per cent this fiscal, according to the official data released on Thursday.
If growth reverts to the pre-Covid level, a lot of people may have to temper their rosy optimism, points out Debashis Basu.
Production of eight infrastructure sectors expanded at a four-month high of 7.8 per cent in January 2023 on better show by coal, fertiliser, steel and electricity segments, according to official data released on Tuesday.
Announcement of macroeconmic data such as industrial production and inflation, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision along with trends in global equities would dictate movement in the stock market this week, analysts said. Besides, foreign fund trading activity would also guide the trends in equities. "All eyes are now on the US Fed policy outcome for cues, which is scheduled on June 14. In the following sessions, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) will also announce their policy decisions.
Electricity production registered growth of 6.8 per cent in June, the lowest in the past three months. Mining sector growth was 3.6 per cent.
The output of eight core infrastructure sectors contracted for the third month in a row by 1.3 per cent in December 2020, dragged down by poor show by crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel and cement sectors. The core sectors had expanded by 3.1 per cent in December 2019, according to the provisional data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry on Friday. Barring coal and electricity, all sectors recorded negative growth in December 2020. During April-December 2020-21, the sectors' output declined by 10.1 per cent against a growth rate of 0.6 per cent in the same period of the previous year.
The growth of eight key infrastructure sectors rose to 5.2 per cent year-on-year in March due to improvement in the output of crude oil, cement and electricity, according to official data released on Tuesday. In 2023-24, the growth rate in the output of these eight sectors was 7.5 per cent, marginally down from 7.8 per cent recorded in the year-ago period.
The dismal factory output growth was on the back of a poor performance by manufacturing, mining and capital goods segments.
India's services sector growth touched a four-month high in December, supported by new business inflows on strong demand conditions and easing inflationary pressures, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index, rose from 58.4 in November to 59.3 in December, highlighting the strongest rate of expansion in four months.
'If the US stagnates and falls into a recession, the dollar will weaken, oil prices will also dip. This augurs well for India.'
India's manufacturing sector growth fell to a 12-month low in December, as new business orders and production expanded at softer rates, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was at 56.4 in December, down from 56.5 in November, indicating a weaker improvement in operating conditions.
'In the past six months, capital markets have seen a dip, and realty is struggling. The stock-market investor will be cautious of putting that investment in real estate when there may be a slowdown coming.'
Factory output growth, as measured by the index of industrial production, was at 8.1 per cent in December 2010.
The industrial production growth rate has dipped to 0.1 per cent in July, as against 3.7 per cent in the same month last year.
The production growth of eight key infrastructure sectors slowed to a six-month low of 7.8 per cent in November due to a decline in the output of crude oil and cement sectors. The growth rate in the production of coal, fertiliser, steel, and electricity also decreased during November this year. According to the data released by the government on Friday, the growth during the month under review, however, is higher than the 5.7 per cent recorded a year ago.
'Spending by the middle class is limited with a focus on savings. However, there is buoyancy at the top-end.'
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) interest rate decision, West Asia conflict and trading activity of foreign investors are the key factors that will dictate investors' sentiment in the market this week, analysts said. Moreover, quarterly earnings from IT bellwether TCS, domestic macroeconomic data and movement in global oil benchmark Brent crude would also guide trends in the market. Worsening tensions in the Middle East and foreign fund outflows were the major culprits behind the equity markets sharp fall last week.
Industrial growth in September this year increased to 6.5 per cent over the same month last year, quick estimates of the index of industrial production showed on Wednesday.
Manufacturing, which constitutes about 76 per cent of industrial production, grew 2.8 per cent from a year earlier, the statistics office said.
Aided by a steady growth of the manufacturing sector, the industrial production grew by 5.3 per cent during the first quarter of the current financial year.
'The pollution has increased. We are facing breathing problems and irritation in the eyes'
Brokerages expect a further slowdown in Indian firms' revenue and earnings growth in Q4FY25, following low single-digit growth in the preceding three quarters, as factors like weak consumer demand and credit growth linger on.
Wholesale inflation rate eased to 34-month low of (-) 0.92 per cent in April on easing prices of food, fuel and manufactured items. The wholesale price index (WPI) based inflation has been on a declining trend for 11 months in a row and entered the negative zone in April. In June 2020 WPI was at (-) 1.81 per cent.
Led by a recovery in manufacturing output, industrial production grew by 5.9 per cent in November, 2011, after witnessing a contraction in the previous month, a development that may reverse the negative sentiment amid an economic slowdown.
Production of eight infrastructure sectors rose at a three-month high of 7.4 per cent in December 2022 against 4.1 per cent in the same month of previous year on a better show by coal, fertiliser, steel, and electricity segments, according to the official data released on Tuesday. Crude oil output, however, contracted by 1.2 per cent in December last year. The production of eight key sectors rose by 5.7 per cent in November 2022.
Power generation grew by 14.6 per cent in November.
Macroeconomic data announcements, global factors and trading activity of foreign investors would be the key triggers for the domestic stock markets this week, analysts said. Last week, the benchmark indices joined the broader market's party despite a host of negative global cues. In the broader market, the BSE midcap and smallcap gauges hit their all-time highs on Friday.
The government on Thursday revised upwards factory output growth rate in April to 2.2 per cent from 2 per cent announced on Wednesday.
Indian economy is on an upswing with industrial production posting its highest growth in a decade at 12.4 per cent
Production of eight infrastructure sectors recorded an almost flat growth rate of 6 per cent in February as against 5.9 per cent in the same month last year, according to official data released on Friday. The growth in February is lowest in the last three months. The output of core sectors had increased by 8.9 per cent in January 2023 and 7 per cent in December 2022.
Output of the manufacturing sector, which constitutes over 75 per cent of the index, rose 8.5 per cent in January, compared to 8.1 per cent in the same month last year.
Barring coal and fertiliser, all sectors -- crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement and electricity -- recorded negative growth in August.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected output to grow 0.7 per cent annually.
In February 2007, for instance, durables grew at 1.1 per cent compared with 20 per cent for the same period last year.
Barring fertiliser, all seven sectors - coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement, and electricity - had recorded negative growth in May.
Portfolio management services (PMS), catering to higher networth individuals (HNIs), are facing tough competition from emerging alternative investment funds (AIFs), evident from their dwindling client base. In May, the number of clients for the industry stood at 125,390, down 20,528 in two months, shows data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). "PMS managers also have a high active ratio, which means their portfolios are quite differently positioned and more actively managed, compared to the benchmark, which is also a highlight for long-term investors.
Stock markets will be driven by domestic inflation data, ongoing quarterly earnings from corporates and global trends this week, analysts said. News flows around the general election would also be tracked by investors, market experts said.
Growth in overall factory output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production.
India's industrial production slowed down to 8.6 per cent in February 2008, compared to 11 per cent a year-ago, but belied apprehensions of a major slowdown after dismal figures for the previous month, giving RBI some headroom to tighten money supply for combating the surging inflation.
Growth in factory output, as measured by the Index of Industrial Production, was higher at 6.7 per cent in February 2011.
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